龙源电力：风况不佳拖累业绩 拟剥离火电聚焦主业

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance was impacted by poor wind conditions and a decline in on-grid electricity prices [2] - The company plans to divest thermal power assets to focus on its core new energy business [2] - The company is accelerating new energy construction, with a planned annual production capacity of 7.5GW [2] - The green power sector faces concerns over the profitability of new projects, but long-term demand remains strong due to the dual-carbon strategy [3] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 59.51, 68.73, and 73.15 billion RMB for 2024-2026 [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 406.62 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.02% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be 59.51 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.77% year-on-year [1] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 0.71 RMB per share [1] - The company's PE ratio for 2024E is 7x [1] - The company's PB ratio is 0.65, with a market capitalization of 48.7 billion HKD [1] Operational Highlights - The company added 595MW of wind power capacity in the first half of 2024, but wind power generation decreased by 4.60% due to poor wind conditions [2] - The average on-grid electricity price for wind power decreased by 6.35% to 441 RMB/MWh [2] - The company plans to divest 1.215GW of thermal power capacity, with the transaction expected to generate 1.319 billion RMB [2] - The company has signed development agreements for 7.59GW of new energy projects and obtained development indicators for 6.09GW, a 51.87% increase year-on-year [2] - The company has already put 2.29GW of new energy capacity into operation, including 1.69GW of photovoltaic and 0.60GW of wind power [2] Industry Outlook - The green power sector is expected to see a recovery in investment rationality, with operational returns potentially aligning with stable utility yields [3] - Policy-driven benefits are likely to act as catalysts for the company's trend-driven performance [3] - The dual-carbon strategy remains a strong driver for long-term demand in the new energy sector [3]