JOINN(603127) 国信证券·2024-09-13 10:04Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Zhaoyan New Drug (603127 SH) [2][4] Core Views - Short-term performance pressure in H1 2024, with signs of recovery in Q2 [2][5] - Revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 849 million (-16 1%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 170 million (-287 3%) [2] - Q2 revenue was RMB 525 million (-18 4%), a 61 5% increase from Q1, with net profit turning positive at RMB 102 million [2][5] - The company's core non-clinical business maintains a leading industry position, with continuous innovation in technology platforms [2][11] - Clinical services show strong growth momentum, particularly in early-stage clinical research and gene therapy [2][12] Financial Performance - H1 2024 gross margin was 30 4% (-14 0pp), and net margin was -20 3% (-29 1pp) [9] - Operating expenses ratio increased to 18 4% (+3 8pp) in H1 2024 [9] - The company's order backlog was RMB 2 9 billion (-25 1%) as of H1 2024, with new orders of RMB 900 million (-30 8%) [2][10] - Q2 new orders were RMB 500 million, a 20% increase from Q1 [2][10] Business Development - The company's Beijing and Suzhou facilities passed FDA GLP inspections for the fifth time, enhancing quality systems [11] - Expanded disease models and drug evaluation technologies in ophthalmology, otology, and CNS fields [11] - Strengthened analytical testing platforms for small and large molecule drugs [11] - Clinical CRO services demonstrated advantages in Phase I and IIT studies, reducing client R&D costs [12] - Clinical testing services showed growth, particularly in gene therapy, supporting multiple innovative drugs in critical clinical stages [12] Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is expected to be RMB 2 042/2 268/2 522 million, with a YoY growth of -14 1%/+11 1%/+11 2% [13][16] - Net profit for 2024/2025/2026 is expected to be RMB 91/300/335 million, with a YoY growth of -77 1%/+229 7%/+11 6% [13][16] - Gross margin for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at 27 8%/28 7%/29 6%, lower than 2023 levels [13][16] Valuation Metrics - PE ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are 113 8x/34 5x/30 9x [3][16] - ROE for 2024/2025/2026 is expected to be 1 1%/3 5%/3 8% [3][16] - EV/EBITDA for 2024/2025/2026 is 53 2x/39 3x/32 4x [3][16]