SHK PPT(00016) 交银国际证券·2024-09-17 11:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 96.10, indicating a potential upside of 29.1% from the current closing price of HKD 74.45 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable performance in FY2024, with revenue projected to increase by 8.9% year-on-year to approximately HKD 77.5 billion, driven by a low base from the previous year and recovery across various business lines [1]. - Rental income is anticipated to reach HKD 20 billion, with a 1.7% year-on-year increase in the first half of FY2024, particularly benefiting from a 3.5% growth in the retail segment [1]. - The report has revised down revenue and profit forecasts for FY2024/25/26, reflecting a decline in development profit margins and increased interest costs due to a high-interest environment [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million HKD): - FY2022: 77,747 - FY2023: 71,195 - FY2024E: 77,541 - FY2025E: 84,049 - FY2026E: 88,737 - Core Profit (in million HKD): - FY2022: 28,729 - FY2023: 23,885 - FY2024E: 22,303 - FY2025E: 24,414 - FY2026E: 26,248 - The report indicates a projected core profit decline of approximately 7% year-on-year to HKD 22.3 billion for FY2024 [4][6]. Market Context - The report highlights that recent adjustments in stamp duty and mortgage policies will significantly reduce the acquisition costs for small to medium-sized units, positioning the company favorably in the mid-market segment [1]. - The recovery in rental income and moderate revival in tourism are expected to enhance consumer spending and tenant capacity in the company's mid to high-end shopping malls [1].