晋西车轴：聚焦铁路装备 晋西集团唯一上市平台

Investment Rating - First coverage of Jinxi Axle with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 4.38 RMB, corresponding to a 128x PE for 2024 [3][4] Core Views - Jinxi Axle is the only listed platform under Jinxi Group and is expected to benefit from large-scale equipment renewal policies and the upcoming rail transit maintenance cycle, leading to potential outperformance in earnings [2][3] - The company is a global leader in railway axle production, with significant overseas market expansion and participation in the domestic substitution of high-speed rail axles [3][4] - The railway and urban rail transit sectors are entering a peak demand period for axles due to maintenance cycles and equipment renewal policies [3][10] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 1.428 billion RMB in 2024 to 1.758 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.3% [3][10] - Net profit is projected to increase from 41 million RMB in 2024 to 61 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 30.6% [3][10] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.03 RMB in 2024 to 0.05 RMB in 2026 [3][10] Industry and Market Analysis - The railway sector is supported by policies such as the "Belt and Road" initiative, with railway fixed-asset investment reaching 337.3 billion RMB in H1 2024, a 10.6% YoY increase [3][10] - The maintenance cycle for railway and urban rail transit vehicles is expected to drive demand for axles, with the replacement cycle typically being 8 years [3][10] - Overseas revenue accounted for over 30% of total revenue in 2023, with significant growth in markets such as North America, the EU, and Southeast Asia [3][10] Company Strengths - Jinxi Axle is the only listed platform under Jinxi Group, with a comprehensive product portfolio in railway axles and vehicles [15][17] - The company has a strong presence in the domestic market, with a 33% market share in railway freight axles and a 4% share in railway freight vehicles [38][39] - It has successfully expanded into international markets, becoming the first mainland manufacturer to supply axles for Hong Kong MTR [39][43] Technological Advancements - The company is a key participant in the domestic substitution of high-speed rail axles, with its 350 km/h high-speed rail axles already in use on "Fuxing" trains [43] - Jinxi Axle has developed advanced axle technologies, including real-time monitoring systems for key parameters, enhancing operational efficiency and safety [39][43]