蒙牛乳业：半年报点评：营业利润率提升，推动高质量发展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a main operating revenue of 44.671 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.446 billion yuan, down 19.03% year-on-year. The company plans to repurchase up to 2 billion HKD of shares within the next twelve months based on market conditions [3][6] - The report indicates that the dairy product industry is under short-term pressure, but the company is enhancing its operating profit margin, achieving a year-on-year increase of 0.46 percentage points to 7.26% due to a decrease in raw milk prices, despite a decline in gross profit [3][6] - The liquid milk segment showed improved profitability, with revenue of 36.262 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.92%, but a profit margin increase of 0.25 percentage points to 6.93% [3][6] - The ice cream segment faced challenges with a revenue of 3.371 billion yuan, down 21.75% year-on-year, and a profit margin decrease of 5.20 percentage points [4] - The infant formula segment reported revenue of 1.635 billion yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year, but achieved a profit margin increase of 8.48 percentage points [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a main operating revenue of 44.671 billion yuan in H1 2024, down 12.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.446 billion yuan, down 19.03% year-on-year [3][6] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.86 percentage points to 40.26%, despite a gross profit decline of 8.38% [3] - The operating profit margin increased by 0.46 percentage points to 7.26% [3] Business Segments - Liquid Milk: Revenue of 36.262 billion yuan, down 12.92% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 6.93%, up 0.25 percentage points [3] - Ice Cream: Revenue of 3.371 billion yuan, down 21.75% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 11.32%, down 5.20 percentage points [4] - Infant Formula: Revenue of 1.635 billion yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 1.43%, up 8.48 percentage points [6] - Cheese: Revenue of 2.114 billion yuan, down 6.28% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 5.60%, up 2.27 percentage points [6] Future Outlook - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 91.674 billion yuan, 97.464 billion yuan, and 100.970 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 4.305 billion yuan, 5.017 billion yuan, and 5.358 billion yuan respectively [6][8] - The report assigns a PE valuation range of 12-15 times for 2024E, corresponding to a per-share value range of 13.08 to 16.35 HKD, with a reasonable value range of 14.37 to 17.97 HKD per share [6][8]