Using Satellite Imagery and a Farmer Registry to Assess Agricultural Support in Conflict Settings

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Ukraine, but it discusses the effectiveness of the Producer Support Grant program, indicating a positive impact on small farmers [4][12]. Core Insights - The digital farmer registry in Ukraine, the State Agrarian Register (SAR), has been instrumental in targeting and evaluating the $50 million Producer Support Grant (PSG) program, which has significantly increased the area cultivated by small farmers, particularly those near conflict zones [4][12]. - The PSG program provided cash grants of approximately $86 per hectare, which were most beneficial for the smallest farmers (under 20 hectares) and those located closest to active fighting [12][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of using administrative data and satellite imagery to assess agricultural support in conflict settings, highlighting the potential for improved targeting and effectiveness of public programs [13][20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report outlines the context of Ukraine's agricultural sector post-Russian invasion, noting significant displacement and damage to agricultural productivity [9][23]. - The SAR was established to facilitate access to support programs for small and medium-sized farmers, particularly through the PSG [9][29]. Context and Setting - Ukraine's agricultural sector is characterized by its fertile land and significant contribution to GDP and exports, with a historical backdrop of collectivization and privatization [25][26]. - The war has disrupted agricultural production and logistics, necessitating the establishment of the SAR to support farmers [10][27]. PSG Program and SAR Platform - The PSG program, targeting small farmers, provided unconditional cash grants to support working capital and prevent liquidation of farms due to war impacts [32][29]. - By June 2024, over 150,000 farmers had registered with the SAR, significantly exceeding previous estimates of agricultural producers in Ukraine [31][32]. Assessing PSG Impacts - The analysis indicates that the PSG program had a significant but modest impact on the area cultivated, particularly among small producers near conflict zones [46]. - The report utilizes a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the program's effectiveness, suggesting that targeting rules were largely adhered to, with limited mis-targeting [46][50].