奥赛康：轻舟已过万重山，创新药扬帆起航

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][75]. Core Insights - The impact of centralized procurement has largely cleared, with a performance turning point observed in H1 2024, as the generic drug segment begins to recover [3][17]. - The company is focusing on innovative drugs, with several potential high-value products nearing market entry, including ASK120067 for lung cancer and ASKB589 for gastric cancer [3][46]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2024, with projected revenue growth rates of 18.8%, 15.1%, and 21.2% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][72]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 10.20 CNY - Market capitalization: 9,467 million CNY - One-year high/low: 12.28/6.50 CNY [2]. Financial Forecasts - Expected revenues for 2024-2026 are 1.716 billion, 1.974 billion, and 2.393 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits projected at 81 million, 134 million, and 203 million CNY [4][72]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability in 2024, with significant growth in net profit expected in the following years [4][75]. Business Segments - The company’s main business segments include: - Digestive Drugs: Revenue expected to stabilize in 2024, with growth anticipated in subsequent years due to new product launches [70][71]. - Oncology: Revenue growth is expected to be stable in 2024, with a potential decline in 2025 due to procurement impacts, followed by recovery in 2026 [70][71]. - Anti-infection: Rapid growth is expected, with revenues projected to increase significantly in the coming years [70][71]. - Chronic Diseases: This segment is expected to see substantial growth, particularly with the introduction of new products [70][71]. Innovation Pipeline - The company has developed several innovative drugs, including ASK120067 and ASKB589, which are in advanced clinical stages and expected to contribute significantly to future revenues [3][46][62]. - The SmartKine® platform is being utilized to enhance the development of cytokine-based therapies, addressing previous challenges in this area [62][63]. Valuation - The company is valued using a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, with a target market capitalization of 12.82 billion CNY, indicating a potential upside of 35% from current levels [4][75].