LB Group(002601) 国泰君安·2024-09-22 13:11Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 20.75 yuan, corresponding to a 14.17X PE ratio for 2024 [5] Core Views - Titanium dioxide exports in August showed steady growth, with a 16.88% YoY increase and a 0.65% MoM increase, totaling 16.07 million tons [5] - The export price of titanium dioxide in August was approximately 2,161 USD/ton, a 1.39% YoY increase but a 4.42% MoM decrease [5] - The proportion of exports to the EU rebounded to 11% in August after a sharp drop to 4% in July due to anti-dumping measures, with a 163.40% MoM increase in export volume [5] - Domestic apparent consumption of titanium dioxide in August was 243,000 tons, a 11.53% YoY increase and a 5.65% MoM increase [5] - The company's titanium dioxide production capacity is the largest globally, with significant cost advantages due to its integrated titanium concentrate production capacity exceeding 1 million tons annually [5] Industry Analysis - The operating rate of the titanium dioxide industry in China reached 80.96% in August, a 4.38 percentage point increase MoM, with production of 397,200 tons, a 14.76% YoY increase and a 4.39% MoM increase [5] - The domestic demand for titanium dioxide is expected to improve further as real estate policies and related stimulus measures take effect [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 26,794 million yuan in 2023 to 36,079 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.3% [10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,226 million yuan in 2023 to 5,623 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.3% [10] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.35 yuan in 2023 to 2.36 yuan in 2026 [10] Valuation - The company's current PE ratio is 12.31x for 2023, 11.36x for 2024, and 8.84x for 2025, based on the latest share capital [10] - The PB ratio is 1.77x for 2023, 1.68x for 2024, and 1.55x for 2025 [10] Key Projects and Resources - The company is advancing projects such as the Fengyuan technical transformation, the integration of the Hongge mining area, and the development of the Xujiagou project [5] - It recently announced the acquisition of the exploration rights for the Changchong titanium mine in Yunnan Province [5]