PETROCHINA(601857) 华泰证券·2024-09-23 04:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company, with target prices of RMB 10.06 and HKD 7.64, respectively [2][6] Core Views - The company has secured a significant foothold in the Suriname-Guyana basin, marking its first entry into South American offshore oil and gas exploration and development [2] - The Suriname-Guyana basin is a global hotspot for oil and gas exploration, with substantial reserves estimated at 18.4 billion barrels of oil and 12.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas [3] - The company holds a 70% stake in the newly awarded Suriname offshore blocks 14 and 15, with the remaining 30% held by Staatsolie's subsidiary POC [2] - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to reach RMB 172.6 billion, RMB 178.3 billion, and RMB 180.4 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow modestly, with 2024E revenue projected at RMB 3.05 trillion, a 1.14% increase year-over-year [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.28% from 2024E to 2026E [5] - The company's ROE is expected to remain stable, with 2024E ROE at 11.57% [5] - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0.94 in 2024E to RMB 0.99 in 2026E [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's A-shares are valued at 10.7x 2024E PE, while H-shares are valued at 7.4x 2024E PE [2] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to increase from 3.36x in 2023 to 4.06x in 2024E [5] - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 1.00x in 2023 to 0.80x in 2026E [5] Industry Context - The Suriname-Guyana basin has seen significant exploration success since ExxonMobil's discovery in 2015, with Guyana's oil production increasing from 20,000 barrels per day in 2019 to 470,000 barrels per day in 2023 [3] - The basin's geological formation dates back to the separation of Laurasia and Gondwana 195 million years ago, making it comparable to the US Gulf of Mexico and West African coast [3] - The company's entry into Suriname is expected to accelerate the development of the country's offshore oil and gas resources [3] Market Dynamics - Global oil prices have weakened, with Brent crude futures dropping by USD 12.11 per barrel from July 1 to September 20, 2024 [4] - The report suggests that the current weak oil price environment could benefit the company by enhancing its ability to acquire overseas oil and gas resources and negotiate favorable long-term natural gas purchase agreements [4]