Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 开源证券·2024-09-23 05:39Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's electrolytic aluminum business has seen both volume and price increases, contributing to significant revenue and profit growth in H1 2024 [4] - The company's first interim dividend distribution and increased dividend ratio enhance its long-term investment value [6] - The company's green aluminum production capacity and low-cost electricity in Yunnan provide a competitive advantage in the context of carbon neutrality [23][26] Company Overview - The company has been operating in the electrolytic aluminum industry for over 50 years, focusing on green aluminum integration [10] - Backed by Chinalco Group, the company benefits from synergies in raw material procurement and financing [11] - The company has built a complete aluminum industry chain through subsidiaries, covering bauxite mining, alumina production, electrolytic aluminum smelting, and aluminum processing [12] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 24.65 billion, a YoY increase of 39%, and net profit of RMB 2.52 billion, a YoY increase of 66% [4] - The company's electrolytic aluminum production in H1 2024 reached 1.35 million tons, a YoY increase of 39%, driven by improved power supply in Yunnan [5] - The company's gross margin and net margin are expected to improve from 2024 to 2026, with ROE projected to remain above 15% [7] Industry and Market Analysis - The company has 3.05 million tons of green aluminum production capacity, ranking first in Yunnan and accounting for 7% of China's total electrolytic aluminum capacity [20] - Under the carbon neutrality policy, green aluminum has a significant cost advantage, with the company's green electricity ratio reaching 80% in 2023 [23] - Yunnan's electricity prices are among the lowest in China, providing a cost advantage for the company's electrolytic aluminum production [26] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 4.95 billion, RMB 5.62 billion, and RMB 5.93 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of RMB 1.43, RMB 1.62, and RMB 1.71 [4] - The company's electrolytic aluminum production is expected to reach 2.75 million, 2.81 million, and 2.90 million tons in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [34] - The aluminum price is expected to remain high, with a projected average price of RMB 19,800/ton, RMB 20,000/ton, and RMB 20,000/ton in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [35]