新华文轩：公司动态研究：基本盘稳固，中期分红显诚意

Investment Rating - Buy rating (first coverage) [2] Core Views - The company's general book business outperformed the market, with steady growth in total profit and a proposed interim dividend of RMB 0.19 per share for 2024 [2] - Revenue in 2024H1 reached RMB 5.788 billion, a YoY increase of 6.64%, with general book revenue at RMB 3.144 billion, up 5.46% YoY, outperforming the general book market which declined by 6.2% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024H1 was RMB 716 million, a YoY decrease of 6.08%, but total profit increased by 5.83% YoY to RMB 848 million, benefiting from the Western Development Strategy and a preferential tax rate of 15% [2] - The company announced a semi-annual dividend plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 1.9 per 10 shares, with a total dividend of RMB 230 million and a dividend payout ratio of 32.75% [2] Financial Performance - In 2024H1, the company achieved a gross profit of RMB 2.226 billion, a YoY increase of 5.61%, with a gross margin of 38.46% [2] - The company's net profit margin in 2024H1 was 12%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10% [8] - Revenue growth is forecasted to be 4% in 2024, 4% in 2025, and 5% in 2026, with net profit growth expected to be -5% in 2024, 11% in 2025, and 7% in 2026 [8] Business Segments - The education services segment saw growth driven by high school textbooks and educational informatization, with textbook and supplementary material sales reaching RMB 3.36 billion in 2024H1, up 2.25% YoY [3] - The general book segment grew against the trend, with sales reaching RMB 6.888 billion in 2024H1, a YoY increase of 16.06%, driven by increased market-oriented educational and literary publications [3] - The company's online platform "Wenxuan Youxue" covered 6,036 schools and served 4.7468 million students [3] Market Position - The company's market share in the general book market ranked 9th among 37 publishing and media groups in China, up 2 places from the end of 2023 [5] Valuation and Forecast - The company's revenue is forecasted to be RMB 12.4 billion in 2024, RMB 12.9 billion in 2025, and RMB 13.6 billion in 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be RMB 1.5 billion, RMB 1.7 billion, and RMB 1.8 billion respectively [5] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to be 11x in 2024, 10x in 2025, and 9x in 2026 [5]