Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a 3.7% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2024, reaching 10.095 billion, and a 10.5% increase in net profit, amounting to 1.875 billion [2]. - A mid-term dividend of 0.16 HKD per share was announced, with a payout ratio of 72% [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024 downwards due to declining birth rates and intense industry competition, projecting net profits of 3.69 billion, 3.86 billion, and 4.02 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][4]. - The company maintains a leading market share in the infant formula sector, with a total market share of 19.2% and offline market share of 22.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 67.9%, up 2.56 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin of 18.6%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points [3]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 20.476 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 3.691 billion, reflecting a 9% increase compared to the previous year [4]. Market Position - The ultra-premium infant formula segment saw a revenue increase of 19.6% to 7.14 billion, driven by the growth of the Star Flying series [3]. - The company has effectively managed its channel inventory, positioning itself to capture market share as smaller brands exit the market [3]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates a decrease in sales expense ratio to 35%, down 0.52 percentage points, due to optimized marketing strategies [3]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10x, 10x, and 9x respectively, compared to an average PE of 12x for comparable companies [2][4].
中国飞鹤：维持行业领先，业绩迎来拐点