Lens(300433) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-09-26 08:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report highlights that Lens Technology is a global leader in structural components and has achieved vertical integration in the supply chain of the smart terminal industry through a platform-based approach. The company is expected to achieve over 35% compound growth in the coming years, driven by the release and iteration of Apple Intelligence, which will further boost growth beyond expectations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Expectations - The market has had low expectations for the iPhone 16 over the past two months, but this negative sentiment is already reflected in the stock price. The focus should shift to the iPhone 17, as the pre-order volume for the iPhone 16 may be overly pessimistic. The application of AI is a cumulative process that should instill confidence in the supply chain [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a profit compound growth rate exceeding 35% in the next two years, driven by several factors including: 1. Increased demands for aesthetic and thermal evolution from key North American clients due to AI needs. 2. Continuous extension of product categories from glass to metal and assembly, enhancing overall product ASP and resilience to cyclical fluctuations. 3. Growth in assembly business with new client acquisitions, leading to increased market share and economies of scale. 4. Strong competitive advantages in the evolving smartphone market, particularly in the UTG segment. 5. Solid foundation in the application of glass substrates in chips, which is a key future direction for the industry [3]. Verification and Catalysts - Key verification indicators include the impact of Apple Intelligence on iPhone 16 shipment volumes, the company's revenue performance in the second half of the year, and the innovation changes in the iPhone 17's exterior components [4]. - Catalysts for growth include the positive impact of Apple Intelligence on iPhone shipment volumes [4]. Research Value - The current market shows divergence in expectations for iPhone 16 and 17 shipment volumes and the specific functions of Apple Intelligence. The second half of this year to next year is seen as the optimal time to track the implementation of Apple Intelligence and the performance growth of core suppliers like Lens Technology [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 71.20 billion, 106.70 billion, and 140.20 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.66%, 49.86%, and 31.40%. Corresponding net profits are forecasted to be 4.07 billion, 5.96 billion, and 7.50 billion yuan, with growth rates of 34.78%, 46.40%, and 25.72% [6][12]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to P/E ratios of 19.85, 13.56, and 10.78 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][11].