BVEA(600379) 海通国际·2024-09-26 10:03Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Baoguang Co Ltd with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of RMB 11.89, based on a 40x PE multiple for 2024 [2][54] Core Views - Baoguang Co Ltd is a leading player in the vacuum interrupter industry with over 30% market share, and is diversifying into energy storage and hydrogen energy sectors [1] - The company benefits from accelerated power grid investment and stricter environmental regulations, which are driving demand for vacuum interrupters [1] - Baoguang Co Ltd has strong technological and brand advantages, with over 50 years of experience in vacuum interrupter production and a leading position in the domestic market [1] - The company is expanding into energy storage and hydrogen energy, with its energy storage subsidiary Baoguang Zhizhong achieving rapid revenue growth [2][40] Industry Overview - The global vacuum interrupter market is expected to grow from 3.64 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.3% [1] - China's renewable energy installed capacity reached 1.653 billion kW by June 2024, accounting for 53.8% of total power generation capacity [34] - The global hydrogen energy market is growing rapidly, with China being the largest hydrogen producer and consumer, accounting for 29% of global demand in 2022 [45][47] Company Financials - Baoguang Co Ltd's revenue grew from RMB 1.01 billion in 2021 to RMB 1.349 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 15.5% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased from RMB 51 million in 2021 to RMB 71 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 18.1% [1] - The company's gross margin for vacuum interrupters was 20.3% in 2023, significantly higher than competitors [1] - Baoguang Zhizhong, the energy storage subsidiary, achieved revenue of RMB 284 million in 2023, up 65.85% YoY [40] Strategic Developments - Baoguang Co Ltd established Baoguang Zhizhong in 2021 with a 45% stake to enter the energy storage market, focusing on frequency regulation and EPC services [2][40] - The company formed Baoguang Lianyue in 2021 with a 40% stake to develop hydrogen energy business [2][50] - Baoguang Co Ltd has been recognized as a "National Manufacturing Single Champion Demonstration Enterprise" by MIIT for three consecutive terms [1][8] Market Opportunities - The energy storage market in China is expected to grow rapidly, with installed capacity projected to reach 87GWh in 2024 and 2,310GWh by 2030 [39] - Hydrogen demand in China is forecast to reach 50.99 million tons by 2030, with electrolyzed water hydrogen production expected to grow at a CAGR of 90.7% from 2023 to 2030 [47] - The vacuum interrupter market is benefiting from power grid investment and the replacement of SF6 products due to environmental regulations [20][24] Competitive Advantages - Baoguang Co Ltd has a complete production chain for vacuum interrupters, with all core components manufactured in-house [1] - The company's vacuum interrupter products have a gross margin of 20.3%, significantly higher than competitors' 10.1% [1] - Baoguang Co Ltd has strong R&D capabilities, with R&D expenses reaching RMB 53.98 million in 2023, accounting for 4% of revenue [14]