新澳股份：羊毛羊绒双轮驱动成势，成长提速有望催化价值重估

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of 6.2 billion yuan, indicating a 29% upside potential from the current market value [4][6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated independent growth resilience, achieving 16 consecutive quarters of year-on-year revenue growth since Q3 2020, with a CAGR of 14% for revenue and 16% for net profit from 2021 to 2023 [4] - The wool and cashmere sectors are expected to drive growth, with wool production capacity doubling and cashmere production reaching full capacity, potentially accelerating the company's growth trajectory [4][6] - The global wool spinning industry has undergone significant consolidation, with the company leading in both domestic and international markets, holding a 13.9% market share domestically and 3.5% internationally in the combed wool yarn segment [4][6] Industry Analysis - The wool spinning industry has seen a significant reduction in competitors, with the number of large-scale wool textile enterprises in China decreasing by 42% from 2010 to 2021, and the loss-making rate remaining high at 25% in 2022-2023 [6][42] - The global cashmere yarn market is estimated to exceed 20,000 tons, with the company holding a 14.9% market share domestically and 4.6% internationally in the carded cashmere yarn segment [6][52] Company Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its wool spinning capacity, with new production bases in Vietnam and Ningxia, leveraging cost advantages and tariff benefits to enhance competitiveness [6][54][57] - The cashmere business is expected to transition from revenue growth to profit growth, with the Ningxia New Cashmere facility nearing full production capacity, which could significantly improve profitability [6][58] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 450 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 590 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11x, 9x, and 8x [4][6] - The company's gross margin for wool spinning is expected to reach a historical high of 27.1% in 2024, driven by increased production efficiency and cost optimization [26][57]