SPG(600529) 申万宏源·2024-09-27 09:10Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating, citing its high-margin and high-growth medium borosilicate molded bottles as key drivers for steady performance improvement [5][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.75 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.11 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 15.3%, 12.5%, and 10.0% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 975 million, 1.155 billion, and 1.288 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 25.7%, 18.4%, and 11.6% respectively [5] - The company's medium borosilicate molded bottles benefit from policy-driven demand growth and have a favorable industry structure [6][8] Company Overview - The company has a 70% market share in the molded bottle segment and has maintained a 13.0% CAGR in revenue from 2012-2023 [6] - Its product portfolio includes molded bottles, brown bottles, ampoules, tubular bottles, butyl rubber stoppers, and aluminum-plastic cap plastic bottles [6] - Molded bottles contributed 2.264 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a 39.2% gross margin [6] Industry Trends - Medium borosilicate glass has superior properties and is widely used in international markets, while China's penetration rate remains low [6] - Policies such as consistency evaluation and centralized procurement are driving the upgrade to medium borosilicate packaging [6][8] - The aging population and increasing healthcare expenditure are supporting stable demand for pharmaceutical glass [54] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 1.468 billion yuan in 2012 to 4.982 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 11.8% [26] - Net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 120 million yuan in 2012 to 776 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 18.5% [26] - The company's ROE has shown three distinct phases: pressure from antibiotic restrictions (2011-2014), recovery (2015-2020), and recent cost pressures (2021-2023) [29][31] Capacity Expansion - The company raised 1.866 billion yuan in 2022 to fund projects including a first-class water-resistant glass bottle project and a pre-filled syringe expansion project [56] - The first-class water-resistant glass bottle project is expected to generate a post-tax IRR of 49.35% and a payback period of 5.26 years [56] - One furnace for medium borosilicate molded bottles was put into operation in November 2023, with more capacity coming online [58]