海航控股：第四大航价值重塑

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hainan Airlines Holdings [3][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the fourth largest airline group in China, having successfully undergone bankruptcy restructuring in 2021 and attracting strategic investors. Under new management, the company has shown significant operational improvements in 2023, being the first among major airlines to return to profitability. The company is at the beginning of a turnaround phase, with potential for market revaluation [4][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hainan Airlines Holdings is the largest private airline in China and has a market share of 8.1% in the summer schedule of 2024. The company has a fleet size of 345 aircraft, representing about 8.0% of the industry, with a notable 20.6% of wide-body aircraft [4][12]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved operational efficiency, with passenger volume reaching 46.246 million in the first eight months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.78%. The passenger load factor in August reached 87.9%, exceeding pre-pandemic levels [4][28]. Financial Forecasts - Projected total revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 674.9 billion, 785.5 billion, and 889.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.09%, 16.38%, and 13.22% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 11.1 billion, 33.5 billion, and 48.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 255.5%, 203.4%, and 43.55% respectively [4][8]. Strategic Positioning - The company benefits from a rich resource base and a strong operational network, with a significant presence in key markets. It operates nearly 1,800 routes, covering all provinces and major cities in China, as well as international destinations [4][24]. Management and Governance - Following the restructuring, the company is now under the control of Liaoning Fangda Group, which emphasizes operational efficiency and aims to leverage the company's historical strengths for future growth [4][17]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the aviation industry and the strategic advantages of being part of a larger group with diverse aviation-related businesses, enhancing its competitive edge [4][9].