正邦科技：整合重启，焕新出发

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, citing the potential for asset injection from the controlling shareholder and a projected PE ratio of 13x by 2026, in line with industry peers [2][49] Core Views - The company has completed its restructuring, with Shuangbaotai Group becoming the controlling shareholder, holding 15.06% of the total shares as of Q2 2024 [1] - The restructuring has enabled the company to restart its feed business, with feed sales recovering to 50.26 million tons in H1 2024, up from 64 million tons in 2023 [1] - The company aims to achieve a hog production capacity of 12 million heads within 3 years, with a target of over 300,000 breeding sows by the end of 2024 [2] - The company's financial performance is expected to improve significantly, with projected net profits of 466 million, 550 million, and 2.041 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [2] Feed Business - The company's feed sales dropped significantly from nearly 5 million tons in 2021 to 64 million tons in 2023 due to operational challenges [1] - With support from Shuangbaotai, the company has resumed production in 11 feed plants as of June 2024, with plans to operate 24 plants by the end of the year [1] - Feed sales in April 2024 reached over 60,000 tons, showing significant year-on-year and month-on-month growth [1] Hog Farming Business - Hog production dropped by 63.3% from 14.927 million heads in 2021 to 5.479 million heads in 2023 [2] - Shuangbaotai has provided support through guaranteed piglet sales, feed processing, and credit facilities, with 1.353 million piglets sold to Shuangbaotai in 2023, accounting for 42% of total piglet sales [2] - The company has established three new farming subsidiaries in 2024, aiming to revitalize production capacity in southern regions [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in H1 2024 was 3.22 billion yuan, a 22.4% year-on-year decline, with feed revenue increasing by 18.8% to 1.45 billion yuan [19] - The company achieved a positive gross profit of 335 million yuan in H1 2024, with feed and farming contributing 108 million and 242 million yuan, respectively [20] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 50.67% as of June 2024, down from 162.6% in September 2023 [22] Industry Outlook - The hog industry is experiencing a cyclical upturn, with self-breeding profits reaching over 680 yuan per head at one point [41] - Despite some recovery in supply, seasonal demand gaps are expected to persist, supporting continued industry profitability [42] - The cautious approach to sow replenishment and slow balance sheet recovery among industry players may prolong the current cycle of profitability [44]