LI AUTO(02015) 国联证券·2024-10-05 14:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto-W (02015) [5] Core Views - Li Auto achieved record monthly deliveries of 53,709 vehicles in September 2024, a 48.9% YoY increase [2][7] - Q3 2024 cumulative deliveries reached 153,000 vehicles, a 45.4% YoY increase, hitting the upper end of sales expectations [2][7] - Market share in the premium NEV segment (above RMB 200,000) exceeded 17% and is expected to continue in Q4 2024 [2][7] - The company's product strength is improving, with stable order growth for the L series and MEGA models [2][7] - Li Auto's intelligent driving capabilities are advancing, with city NOA mileage penetration exceeding 50% among test users [7] - The company's ecosystem is expanding rapidly, with 479 retail centers, 436 service centers, and 894 supercharging stations as of September 2024 [7] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 147.3 billion in 2024 to RMB 280.0 billion in 2026, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6% [7] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 8.53 billion in 2024 to RMB 23.72 billion in 2026 [7] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 4.02 in 2024 to RMB 11.18 in 2026 [7] - The company's ROE is projected to improve from 12.4% in 2024 to 22.3% in 2026 [10] Operational Highlights - Li Auto's retail network covers 145 cities with 479 retail centers as of September 2024 [7] - The company has deployed 4,286 charging piles across 894 supercharging stations [7] - OTA 6.2 version enhanced Pro version's highway NOA capability and Max version's parking and AEB functions [7] Industry Position - Li Auto maintains a leading position in the premium NEV market with over 17% market share in the RMB 200,000+ segment [7] - The company's intelligent driving capabilities are considered advanced, with significant improvements in AEB and AES functions [7]