环球市场脉搏（2024年9月）

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point rate cut is a preventive measure against recession rather than a response to economic stability [1] - It suggests that investors should maintain a low exposure to US equities and prepare for range trading strategies, anticipating a shift towards safe-haven assets due to election uncertainties [1] - The report highlights the historical performance of asset classes during 50 basis point rate cuts, noting that such cycles often lead to poor stock market performance and strong bond performance [1] Market Focus - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is the first since the pandemic, driven by concerns over the labor market's health [1] - The report recommends increasing allocations to gold and bonds as a hedge against future risks [1] - It notes that the market has already priced in the Fed's rate cut, but the implications of the cut are more significant than initially perceived [1] Asset Class Performance - Commodity markets have been buoyed by statements from the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China, with copper and aluminum prices rising approximately 8% over the past 30 days [2] - Most 10-year government bond yields across major economies have declined [2] - Chinese equities have outperformed major asset classes, with indices like the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 16.0% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 29.4% [2] Sentiment Indicators - Overall market sentiment is optimistic, with nearly 50% of investors being bullish as of the end of September [3] - The put-call ratio in the US stock market stands at 0.53, indicating a generally bullish outlook despite recent market adjustments [3] - The VIX, known as the "fear index," has cooled from its previous highs but remains elevated [3] Global Observations - Despite some improvements in interest-sensitive data following the Fed's rate cut, business activity and the labor market remain weak [3] - Among 25 indicators tracked, only 4 are positive, while 16 are neutral and 5 are negative [3]