工程机械行业点评：工程机械杂志预测9月挖机外销同比增长近9%

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Recommended" for the engineering machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that excavator sales in September 2024 are estimated to be around 16,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 12%. The market is showing signs of recovery, with a noticeable rebound in the domestic market and gradual positive growth in the export market [2][3]. - Domestic sales are projected to reach 7,300 units, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 17%. The domestic market is entering a stable upward trend, driven by the demand for small excavator replacements as the rainy season ends [2]. - The export market is expected to see sales of 8,700 units, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 9%. This growth is attributed to the destocking of domestic brands and a low base from the previous year, with moderate recovery in demand from overseas regions [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - The domestic market is experiencing a significant recovery, with excavator sales expected to grow by over 8% year-on-year. The demand is primarily driven by the replacement needs for small excavators, and the mid-sized excavator market is also beginning to show signs of growth due to low base effects and replacement cycles [2][3]. Export Market - The export market is forecasted to improve, with a year-on-year decline in sales narrowing to 8% for the first nine months of 2024. The second half of the year is expected to see a positive turnaround in excavator exports, particularly in regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where growth rates are relatively strong [3]. Overall Industry Outlook - The overall outlook for the engineering machinery industry remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in both domestic and export markets. The report maintains a recommendation for companies such as XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Zhejiang Dingli, indicating confidence in their performance amid the recovering market conditions [2][3].