YILI(600887) 国都证券·2024-10-09 01:39Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommend" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook with expected stock price growth of 5-15% over the next 6 months [3][9] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the dairy industry with strong comprehensive advantages and is expected to achieve steady growth in the future [1] - Recent policy support for the dairy sector, including measures to stabilize production and promote consumption, has boosted market sentiment [1][2] - The company has completed inventory reduction in H1 2024 and is expected to see improved profitability in 2025 as upstream capacity rationalizes and demand recovers [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of over 70% and a dividend yield of 4.7%, while also engaging in share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns [1] - The stock is currently trading at 12x 2024 PE, offering attractive valuation and long-term investment value [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecast to grow from 1,262 billion yuan in 2024E to 1,420 billion yuan in 2026E, with annual growth rates of 3.1% to 4.5% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 104 billion yuan in 2024E to 134 billion yuan in 2026E, despite a temporary decline in 2025E [3] - EPS is projected to rise from 2.04 yuan in 2024E to 2.11 yuan in 2026E [3] - The P/E ratio is estimated to remain stable between 12.1x to 13.1x from 2024E to 2026E [3] Company Fundamentals - The company has a total market capitalization of 162.5 billion yuan and total assets of 151.6 billion yuan [5] - The stock has traded between 21.37 yuan and 29.29 yuan over the past 52 weeks [5] - The company has 636.6 million total shares outstanding, with 630.5 million shares in free float [5] - Book value per share stands at 8.41 yuan [5]