高盛-中国市场寻思：为时未晚

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market, particularly favoring港股 over A股 due to stronger earnings revisions and more attractive valuations [20][22] Core Views - The policy stimulus package, while not sufficient to fundamentally reverse the market situation, is expected to drive a short-term policy-driven rebound [5][20] - The real estate market remains a critical issue, and until it stabilizes, Chinese stocks are likely to remain short-term trading targets [5][25] - The government's focus on growth and the market is evident, with measures aimed at stabilizing the stock market and boosting investor confidence [17][20] Policy Measures Summary - Monetary Policy: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 50bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing approximately RMB 1 trillion in long-term liquidity, and hinted at further rate cuts by the end of the year [9][10] - Property Market: Measures include lowering the minimum downpayment ratio for second-home buyers to 15%, reducing existing mortgage rates by 50bps, and introducing a RMB 300 billion relending program to support local governments in purchasing existing housing inventory [10][13] - Equity Market: The PBOC introduced a RMB 500 billion liquidity provision program for non-bank financial institutions and a RMB 300 billion relending program to support listed companies' share buybacks [8][13] Market Impact - The policy measures have led to a positive market reaction, with the恒生国企指数 and沪深300指数 rising by 5% and 4% respectively [3][8] - The potential establishment of a government-backed stabilization fund could further support the market, with historical data suggesting such interventions can effectively boost short-term returns [4][14] - The report highlights that the current market environment is conducive to a short-term rebound, with valuations and investor positioning at or near cyclical lows [22][23] Key Investment Themes - Shareholder Returns: The focus on shareholder returns and long-term capital is unprecedented, making the股东回报投资组合 an attractive option for investors seeking short-term outperformance or long-term exposure [23][25] - Real Estate Market: The effectiveness of housing policies will be crucial in determining the sustainability of any market rebound, with further policy support and government funding likely needed to address the significant inventory overhang [25][26]