摩根士丹利：市场能持续么？政策预期会兑现吗？原文

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the investment outlook for the Chinese market, suggesting that policy changes may restore foreign investor confidence [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in China's policy framework, focusing on balancing safety and development, with social stability as a priority [2][4][53]. - It highlights the expectation of approximately 2 trillion RMB in fiscal policy measures aimed at addressing debt risks and stimulating local government spending [6][7][10]. - The report suggests that while initial fiscal measures may seem modest, they reflect a significant policy shift and coordination among various government departments [8][10][12]. - The potential for further policy measures, particularly in the real estate sector, is noted as crucial for economic recovery and investor confidence [12][14][46]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The report anticipates the introduction of around 2 trillion RMB in fiscal policies, with half allocated to debt resolution and the other half to support local government spending and infrastructure [6][7][10]. - It argues that the scale of initial fiscal measures may not meet high expectations but represents a critical shift in policy direction [8][10][12]. Market Sentiment - The report discusses the mixed sentiment among international and domestic investors, with some expressing disappointment over the scale of fiscal measures while others recognize the importance of the policy shift [8][10][14]. - It notes that the market's recovery is contingent on the successful implementation of these policies and the stabilization of the real estate market [12][14][46]. Economic Outlook - The report projects a gradual improvement in GDP growth, estimating a rise from a 3% annualized rate in Q3 to 4.7% in Q4, with further growth expected in early 2024 [18][19]. - It emphasizes the need for stronger policy measures to combat deflation and stimulate consumption, particularly in the real estate sector [20][22][51]. Real Estate Sector - The report highlights recent positive signals in the real estate market, including increased sales and visits to property showrooms, suggesting a potential recovery [48][49]. - It stresses the importance of sustained policy support and the need for a more predictable regulatory environment to rebuild confidence in the real estate market [50][51].