黄金周报：美国降息幅度预期反复，金价高位震荡

Price Trends - From September 23 to October 4, gold prices experienced fluctuations due to changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, initially rising and then falling[1] - On September 27, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 599.42 CNY/gram, up 8.80 CNY/gram from September 20; COMEX gold futures closed at 2680.80 USD/ounce, up 33.70 USD/ounce[2] - By October 4, COMEX gold futures fell to 2673.20 USD/ounce, down 7.6 USD/ounce from September 27, while London gold spot prices decreased to 2653.27 USD/ounce, down 4.70 USD/ounce[2] Market Influences - The rise in gold prices during the week of September 23 was supported by a decline in the U.S. August core PCE, which bolstered expectations for continued inflation easing and significant future rate cuts[1] - The unexpected strength in the U.S. September non-farm payroll data and a declining unemployment rate led to a cooling of expectations for aggressive rate cuts, putting downward pressure on gold prices[1] Future Outlook - For the week of October 7, gold prices are expected to face adjustment pressures due to the upcoming release of the September FOMC meeting minutes and U.S. inflation data[1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may provide temporary support for gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand[1] Market Data - As of September 27, the international gold basis (spot-futures) returned to a positive 11.95 USD/ounce, a significant increase of 27.90 USD/ounce from September 20[4] - The Shanghai gold basis was -1.19 CNY/gram on September 27, continuing to decline by 0.91 CNY/gram from September 20[4] Holdings and Trading Volume - As of October 4, global SPDR gold ETF holdings increased to 876.26 tons, up 0.87 tons from September 20[10] - The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D from September 23 to September 30 was significantly higher, totaling 190,170 kg[10]