Three Squirrels(SZ:300783)2024-10-11 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 338 to 342 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 99% to 101%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be 262 to 269 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207% to 215% [2]. - The company is focusing on a high-end cost-performance strategy to respond to terminal demand, with structural changes in business, supply chain, and organization driving growth. The "D+N" collaborative approach is enhancing channel performance, leading to continuous revenue growth across all channels [2]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth driven by scale effects and supply chain efficiency improvements, with a stable overall gross margin. The non-recurring profit for Q3 2024 is estimated to be between 11 to 14 million yuan [2]. - The company is strengthening its high-end cost-performance barrier, with positive factors expected to be released in Q4 2024, including strong demand for nut gift boxes during the Mid-Autumn Festival and orderly distribution of products in offline channels [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10,209.42 million yuan, 13,316.63 million yuan, and 17,311.62 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 43.50%, 30.43%, and 30.00% [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 401.28 million yuan in 2024, 564.94 million yuan in 2025, and 752.29 million yuan in 2026, with profit growth rates of 82.58%, 40.78%, and 33.16% respectively [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.00 yuan in 2024, 1.41 yuan in 2025, and 1.88 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24, 17, and 13 [3][4].