ANTA SPORTS(02020) 国信证券·2024-10-11 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - In the challenging consumer environment, Anta demonstrates strong brand operational capabilities, with a positive outlook on annual performance certainty and long-term growth potential across multiple brands. Despite a noticeable industry downturn in the third quarter, Anta maintains good growth, while FILA experiences a slight decline but with healthy inventory and discount levels. Other sub-brands show rapid growth, highlighting the company's multi-brand operational strength. With the upcoming National Day Golden Week and peak consumption season, the company is expected to accelerate growth while maintaining healthy inventory and discount levels [2][7] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q3 2024, Anta's main brand recorded mid-single-digit positive growth, while FILA experienced low single-digit negative growth. Other brands saw a significant increase in sales of 45-50% [2][4] - Anta's sales growth continued with mid-single-digit increases, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio of less than 5. Online retail discounts narrowed [4][6] - FILA's sales saw a slight decline, with an inventory turnover ratio of 5, and online discounts remained stable [4][6] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is estimated at 136.5 billion, 134.9 billion, and 148.2 billion yuan respectively. Adjusted net profits, excluding one-time gains from Amer Sports' listing, are approximately 120.7 billion, 134.9 billion, and 148.2 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.9%, 11.8%, and 9.9% [2][7][8] - The revenue forecast for 2024 is 69.507 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.5% [8][11] Valuation - The reasonable valuation range for Anta has been adjusted to 103-112 HKD, up from the previous range of 98-107 HKD, corresponding to an adjusted EPS of 22-24 times for 2024 [2][7]