SEAMILD FOODS(002956) 东吴证券·2024-10-11 10:12Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Ximai Food, indicating a positive outlook for the stock in the coming months [1][3][73]. Core Insights - Ximai Food has been focusing on the health food sector, particularly in oats, for over 30 years, and is now expanding into the broader health market through both organic growth and acquisitions [2][3]. - The oat industry in China is relatively small but has significant growth potential, driven by health trends and an aging population [2][3][26]. - Ximai Food is enhancing its market position through a comprehensive supply chain and multi-channel distribution strategy, which includes significant growth in online sales [2][3][34]. - The company is actively pursuing new product development in the health sector, including the launch of protein powder and the acquisition of Desai Kanggu, which will allow entry into the dairy-grain formula market [3][59][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Ximai Food is the leading oat brand in China, established in 1994, and has maintained a stable ownership structure with the founding family controlling over 50% of shares [12][16]. - The company has experienced steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of over 10% from 2019 to 2023, despite recent pressures on profitability due to rising raw material costs [20][26]. 2. Oat Industry Analysis - The Chinese oat market is projected to grow, with a total sales value of 9.56 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 4.8% from 2018 to 2023 [2][26]. - The market is characterized by low concentration, with the top three companies holding only 51.3% of the market share, indicating room for growth for Ximai Food [2][32]. 3. Business Strategy - Ximai Food has established a full supply chain for oats, ensuring stable raw material supply and cost control through its own production bases in various regions [3][49]. - The company is expanding its distribution channels, achieving over 180% growth in offline snack channels in 2023, and has become a top brand on major e-commerce platforms [3][39]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Ximai Food are optimistic, with expected revenues of 20 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 28.7 billion yuan by 2026, alongside a projected net profit of 1.2 billion yuan in 2024 [3][68][73]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive P/E ratio compared to its peers, indicating potential for further valuation growth [3][73].