摩根士丹利：投资者介绍_NVDA GPU 路线图、内存反馈和晶圆设备

Investment Ratings - The report provides a cautious investment rating for the South Korea technology sector and an in-line rating for the Japan semiconductor sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The cyclical downturn in the memory sector is now a certainty, indicating no further upside potential [5]. - Chinese DRAM is projected to account for 15% of global capacity by the end of 2025, with DRAM capital expenditure expected to return to historical highs in 2024 and 2025 [7]. - The report highlights significant growth in GPU volumes, with NVIDIA's GPU volume expected to increase from 1,474 thousand units in 2023 to 11,673 thousand units by 2027, representing a CAGR of 68% [9]. Summary by Sections Memory Market Dynamics - DRAM supply levels have returned to historical peaks, with a 22% increase in DRAM wafer starts in 2022 [6]. - The total HBM market is projected to grow from $4 billion in 2023 to$82 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 107% [9]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the competitive landscape for semiconductor production equipment, noting that Tokyo Electron holds a 90% market share in core coaters/developers [37]. - The adoption timeline for CoW/WoW technologies indicates rapid growth in HBM applications since early 2010s, with significant business opportunities projected for the coming years [21][22]. Company Ratings and Preferences - The report lists preferred companies in the memory sector, with Western Digital and Samsung Electronics rated as overweight, while SK Hynix and others are rated underweight [13]. - The market cap and current prices for these companies indicate potential upside, with Western Digital showing a 42% upside potential based on current price targets [13].