摩根士丹利：主题 Alpha_AlphaWise 美国消费者脉搏调查 Wave 58

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies covered. Core Insights - Consumer sentiment is improving, with 35% of consumers expecting to spend more in the upcoming holiday season, resulting in a net spending outlook of +24%, significantly higher than the average of +16% since the survey began in 2020 [6][29]. - Price sensitivity among consumers when grocery shopping has decreased compared to 2022, with fewer consumers paying attention to prices (NET +49% vs. +58% in '22) [6][34]. - Key issues for the upcoming 2024 Presidential election include the economy (58%), immigration (36%), healthcare (34%), and taxes (32%), with a majority of voters believing the country is not headed in the right direction [6][14]. Summary by Sections Sentiment - Concerns over inflation remain high, with 63% of consumers worried about rising prices, while 48% are concerned about the political environment [8][10]. - Low-income consumers show increased concern about their ability to pay rent/mortgage, rising to 28% [8]. Macro Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy remains elevated, with 40% expecting improvement in the next six months [19]. - The outlook for household finances is stable, with 47% expecting their finances to improve [20]. Spending Patterns - Consumers are likely to start spending earlier this holiday season, with a net spending outlook of +24% [6][29]. - The purchase of organic and premium products has increased, although they still trend net negative [6][34]. Grocery Shopping Trends - Consumers are less price sensitive when grocery shopping compared to 2022, with a notable decrease in attention to prices [6][34]. - A slight increase in consumers purchasing preferred brands has been observed [36]. 2024 Presidential Election - The economy remains the top concern for voters, followed by immigration and healthcare [14][16]. - A significant portion of voters believes that the current state of these issues is not favorable [16]. Household Savings Reserves - 26% of consumers report having no savings, while 33% have three months or less [27]. - Upper-income consumers have an average of ~7 months in savings compared to ~3 months for lower-income cohorts [27]. Engagement in Activities - Participation in out-of-home activities remains consistent, with a slight decrease in dining out [41]. - Online grocery shopping continues to trend positively, with 48% of consumers purchasing groceries online [42]. Travel Intentions - Approximately 60% of consumers plan to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the most common reason [43].