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摩根士丹利：全球技术_人工智能供应链_Blackwell加速发展
摩根大通·2024-10-11 14:13

Investment Rating - The report provides an "In-Line" investment rating for the AI semiconductor industry, indicating a balanced outlook on the sector's performance. Core Insights - NVIDIA's Blackwell production revenue in 1Q25 is expected to surpass that of Hopper, driven by strong demand for its next-generation AI chip, with production volume projected to reach 750k-800k units, nearly tripling from 4Q24 [1][2] - The AI semiconductor supply chain is experiencing significant growth, with NVIDIA's revenue from Blackwell chips anticipated to contribute between US5−10billionin4Q24[1][2]−TheintroductionofnewGPUdiesandserverracks,suchastheB112andGB300A,issettoenhanceperformanceandmeetincreasingdemandintheAIsector[3][4]SummarybySectionsAISupplyChain−TheGPUtestingsupplychainisexpectedtoseecapacityutilizationbelow505-10 billion in 4Q24 [1][2] - The introduction of new GPU dies and server racks, such as the B112 and GB300A, is set to enhance performance and meet increasing demand in the AI sector [3][4] Summary by Sections AI Supply Chain - The GPU testing supply chain is expected to see capacity utilization below 50% in October and November, increasing to over 60% in December [2] - NVIDIA's upcoming GPU die, B112, will enter production in 1H25, offering improved performance while utilizing TSMC's 4nm technology [3] AI Downstream Supply Chain - NVIDIA is likely to adopt sockets for its data center GPUs starting with Blackwell, which may positively impact suppliers like Lotes in the mid to long term [6] - Hon Hai reported a 34% month-over-month increase in September sales, driven by AI-related server shipments [6] AI Semiconductor Demand - The report forecasts nearly US380 billion in cloud capex across 2024-2025, indicating strong investment capabilities among major cloud service providers [20] - Hyperscalers are expected to increase their AI server procurement, with a notable shift in capex allocation among key players like Microsoft and Amazon [21][23] AI Chip Vendor Insights - NVIDIA's AI chip consumption is projected to generate significant revenue, with the company expected to be the largest customer for HBM in 2024 [24][26] - The report highlights the competitive landscape among AI chip vendors, with NVIDIA's H100 and H200 chips leading in market share and performance metrics [35][36]