摩根大通：欧洲汽车市场 2024 年 9 月更新

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the European car market, but it provides insights into market performance and trends that could inform investment decisions. Core Insights - Passenger car sales in the major five European countries decreased by 4.7% year-on-year to 489,000 units in September 2024, and were down 17% compared to pre-COVID levels in September 2019 [2] - The decline in sales is attributed to seasonal demand changes, following a period of recovery from supply disruptions caused by semiconductor shortages and COVID-19 restrictions [2][3] - Non-private consumer demand has been driving car sales in Europe, showing a double-digit increase of 5% year-on-year in FY23, while private demand has only increased in single digits [2] - The production recovery in Europe is slowing, with a forecasted global production increase of 1.8% in FY24, contrasting with a decline of 2.0% in the S&P [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, car sales fell across all EU5 countries for the second consecutive month, with Germany down 7%, Italy down 10.7%, and France down 11.1%, while the UK saw a slight increase of 1% and Spain an increase of 6.3% [2][3] - Year-on-year performance varied significantly among manufacturers, with Honda, Skoda, Tesla, Toyota, BMW Group, Hyundai, VW Group, and Kia outperforming the market, while brands like VW, Mercedes, and Ford underperformed [3] Production Trends - European production grew by 10% in 2023 but saw a decline of 2% in Q1 and 5% in Q2 of 2024, with expectations of a slight slowdown of approximately -3% year-on-year in September [3] - Orders in France and Germany have shown mixed results, with a return to modest positive growth in recent months, particularly in France [3] Pricing Dynamics - Pricing power for internal combustion engine vehicles in Europe remained disciplined in September 2024, slightly stronger than in previous months, despite price cuts by Tesla and discount pressures [4] - The report indicates that the next few months will be critical for observing pricing patterns as OEMs gain visibility on order backlogs into the second half of 2024 [4] Market Comparison - The report compares current sales to pre-COVID levels, highlighting that the overall market is still down significantly, with the Big 5 countries collectively down 17% compared to 2019 [13][14] - Specific country performance shows Germany down 7%, France down 11.1%, and Italy down 10.7% compared to September 2019, while Spain is down 11% [14]