ANGEL YEAST(600298) 高盛证券·2024-10-13 16:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for Angel Yeast is "Sell" with a 12-month target price of Rmb30.3, reflecting a downside of 16.8% from the current price of Rmb36.42 [1][2][15]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve 23% year-on-year sales growth in Q3 2024, driven by a rebound in domestic bakery yeast volume and strong overseas demand, which is projected to grow over 20% year-on-year [1][3]. - Despite the sales growth, the company anticipates a contraction in gross profit margin (GPM) and net profit margin (NPM) due to rising logistics costs, with expected GPM/NPM contractions of 1.5 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [1][2]. - The management has raised the full-year sales growth estimate for 2024 from approximately 10% to 12.5%, with net profit growth now expected to reach 9% year-on-year [1][2][12]. Summary by Sections Sales and Growth - The company reported a year-to-date sales growth of approximately 12% and aims for over 20% sales growth in October [3][4]. - Domestic sales in the baking segment grew 7%-8% year-on-year in September, while overseas sales surged by 40% year-on-year [3][4]. Profitability and Costs - Logistics costs have increased significantly, impacting overseas profitability, although these costs are stabilizing [5][6]. - Raw material prices, particularly for molasses, have shown a downward trend, which may influence pricing strategies moving forward [7][8]. Capacity and Future Outlook - The utilization rate remains high at around 90%, with new production capacity expected from the Egyptian and Russian factories in Q4 2024 [9]. - The company is exploring mergers and acquisitions to enhance growth, although suitable targets are limited [9]. Financial Estimates - Revised financial estimates indicate a 2% increase in net profit estimates for 2024-2026, with expected sales growth of 12.5% and net profit growth of 9% for 2024 [12][14].