2024年9月物价数据点评：服务价格走低带动9月CPI涨幅低位回落，需求偏弱是PPI同比跌幅扩大的主要原因

CPI Analysis - In September 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 0.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Core CPI, reflecting the basic price level, fell to 0.1%, the lowest in nearly 43 months, indicating a severe low inflation situation[1] - Food prices saw a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with significant contributions from fresh vegetables and fruits, which rose 22.9% and 6.7% respectively[3] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to -2.8%, a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking the 24th consecutive month of negative growth[2] - The PPI fell by 0.6% month-on-month, with significant downward pressure from international crude oil prices and insufficient domestic demand[6] - Production materials PPI saw a year-on-year decline of -3.3%, while living materials prices also faced downward pressure, with a year-on-year drop of -1.3%[7][8] Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to rebound to around 0.6% in October, but low inflation is likely to persist in the short term, making it challenging for CPI to exceed 1.0% by year-end[5] - The consumer confidence index was reported at 85.8 in August, continuing a downward trend for five consecutive months, indicating weak consumer sentiment[4] - Future PPI performance will largely depend on the effectiveness of a series of incremental policies aimed at boosting industrial demand, particularly in the real estate sector[8]