Workflow
安踏体育：All eyes on 4Q24E for the room of re-rating
02020ANTA SPORTS(02020) 招银国际·2024-10-14 14:38

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating and raise target price to HK126.68,basedon23xFY25EP/E,revisedupfrom20x[3][5][11]CoreViews−Despiteadisappointing3Q24performance,theoutlookfor4Q24EispositiveduetostrongretailsalesgrowthduringtheNationalDayholidaysandgovernmentstimulusmeasures[3]−ThecompanyhasnotreviseddownitsFY24Esalesgrowthguidance,butamoreconservativeestimateisadopted[3]−Confidenceinnetprofitmarginremainshigh,supportedbyeffectivecostcontrolandaresilientgrossprofitmargin[3][6]RevenueandProfitForecasts−FY24ErevenueforecastisRMB69,483million,withaslightdownwardrevisionof−1.2 126.68, based on 23x FY25E P/E, revised up from 20x [3][5][11] Core Views - Despite a disappointing 3Q24 performance, the outlook for 4Q24E is positive due to strong retail sales growth during the National Day holidays and government stimulus measures [3] - The company has not revised down its FY24E sales growth guidance, but a more conservative estimate is adopted [3] - Confidence in net profit margin remains high, supported by effective cost control and a resilient gross profit margin [3][6] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - FY24E revenue forecast is RMB 69,483 million, with a slight downward revision of -1.2% from previous estimates [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for FY24E is revised up by 4.8% to RMB 12,886 million [7] - Diluted EPS for FY24E is projected at RMB 4.601, reflecting a 4.8% increase from previous estimates [7] Sales Growth Expectations - Retail sales growth for Anta and FILA is expected to turn around in 4Q24E, with estimates of 16% and 10% respectively [3] - The company anticipates high single-digit to mid-single-digit retail sales growth for Anta and FILA in FY24E, compared to the company's guidance of over 10% [3] Market Position and Brand Performance - Anta's brand reforms are yielding positive results, with successful product launches and an expanded customer base through various store formats [3] - FILA is also expected to benefit from store revamps and new product series, although its recent performance has been weaker [3] Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 18x FY25E P/E, which is considered not demanding compared to its 5-year average of 25x [3] - The target price reflects a potential upside of 26.6% from the current price of HK 100.10 [5]