IPO点评：华润饮料

Investment Rating - The report assigns an IPO-specific rating of "5.6" for the company [5] Core Insights - China Resources Beverage is a leading player in the packaged drinking water and beverage market, with a strong revenue growth trajectory and a significant market share in the pure water segment [1][2] - The company has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the past years, driven primarily by its flagship product, "Yibao" purified water [1] - The packaged drinking water market in China is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 7% in the coming years, indicating a favorable industry outlook [2] Company Overview - Revenue for 2022, 2023, and the first four months of 2024 was RMB 12.6 billion, RMB 13.5 billion, and RMB 4.15 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 7%, and 5.3% [1] - Net profit figures for the same periods were RMB 990 million, RMB 1.33 billion, and RMB 450 million, reflecting growth rates of 15.2%, 34.7%, and 29.5% [1] - The gross profit margin has improved from 41.7% in 2022 to 47.1% in the first four months of 2024, attributed to a decline in raw material prices [1] Industry Status and Outlook - The Chinese packaged drinking water market is estimated to be close to RMB 215 billion in 2023, with a five-year annual growth rate of 7.1% [2] - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five players holding a combined market share of 58%, and the company holds an 18.4% market share, ranking second [2] - The company leads the purified water segment with a market share of 32.7% [2] Strengths and Opportunities - The company benefits from strong brand recognition and a leading market position with its "Yibao" brand [3] - It has established a robust sales network and possesses extensive management experience within the beverage industry [3] Investment Considerations - The IPO has attracted significant cornerstone investors, accounting for approximately 42% of the total issuance, indicating strong institutional interest [5] - The estimated market capitalization post-IPO is projected to be between HKD 31.7 billion and HKD 34 billion [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is estimated to be between 20x and 21.5x, suggesting a reasonable valuation [5]