花旗：未来一周；中国财政部即将召开的简报；ID OMO 趋平

Investment Rating - The report indicates a less favorable investment regime for emerging markets (EM) due to shifting macroeconomic dynamics and increased scrutiny on fiscal policies [15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's export growth is expected to moderate to 6.0% YoY in September, with imports remaining low at 1.5% YoY. GDP growth for Q3 2024 is projected at approximately 4.5% YoY, with industrial production stable at 4.6% YoY and retail sales improving to 2.8% YoY [3][14]. - In India, CPI inflation is anticipated to rise sharply to 5.2% YoY in September from 3.65% YoY in August, primarily due to unfavorable base effects in food prices [12][14]. - Indonesia is expected to lower its BI rate by 25bps in the upcoming policy meeting despite recent FX volatility [12][14]. - The Bank of Thailand is likely to maintain its policy rate as it awaits more data to assess economic momentum [12][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - China: Exports growth is projected at 6.0% YoY, imports at 1.5% YoY, and GDP growth at ~4.5% YoY for Q3 2024 [3][14]. - India: CPI inflation is expected to rise to 5.2% YoY in September, driven by food price increases [12][14]. - Indonesia: Anticipated BI rate cut of 25bps in October [12][14]. - Thailand: No change in policy rate expected as the BoT assesses economic data [12][14]. Upcoming Events - Key economic indicators to watch include China's CPI and PPI data, expected to show a CPI of 0.5% YoY and a PPI of -2.5% YoY [10][14]. - Malaysia's industrial production is forecasted at 5.3% YoY for August, while India's industrial production is expected to be 1.0% YoY [10][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a shift in EM market dynamics, with increased fiscal dominance affecting trading behaviors and risk positioning [15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming events, including the US elections, which may drive uncertainty in EM assets [15].