BILIBILI(BILI) 交银国际证券·2024-10-17 02:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of 20.31 [1][9]. Core Insights - The report slightly raises the revenue forecast for Q3 2024 by 1% to RMB 7.3 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 26%, primarily driven by the performance of the game "Three Miao" [1]. - The expected gross margin is projected to increase by 9 and 4 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively, to 34%, due to operational leverage and an increase in the proportion of game and advertising revenues [1]. - The game "Three Miao" is expected to generate over RMB 1.3 billion in revenue for Q3, leading to an upward adjustment of the game revenue forecast to RMB 1.9 billion for Q3 and RMB 5.6 billion for 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 92% and 40%, respectively [1]. - Advertising and VAS revenue are expected to grow by 25% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, supported by improved advertising infrastructure and product iterations [1]. - The report anticipates a long-term profit margin normalization of 10-15% due to the stable performance of "Three Miao" and the launch of new games [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Bilibili are as follows: RMB 22.5 billion in 2023, RMB 26.9 billion in 2024 (19.2% growth), RMB 29.9 billion in 2025 (11.3% growth), and RMB 31.8 billion in 2026 (6.6% growth) [2][10]. - The net profit forecast shows a significant improvement, with expected losses of RMB 3.4 billion in 2023, narrowing to RMB 119 million in 2024, and turning profitable with RMB 1.8 billion in 2025 and RMB 2.8 billion in 2026 [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 283 million in 2024, with a corresponding adjusted net profit margin of 4% [6][10]. Market Performance - Bilibili's stock has shown a significant range over the past 52 weeks, with a high of 8.94, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately $6.55 billion [3][10]. - The stock's year-to-date performance indicates a strong recovery, with a notable increase compared to the MSCI China Index [3][9].