Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - JD Group is expected to report strong revenue and profit performance for Q3 2024, with revenue projected to reach 259.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The Non-GAAP net profit margin is anticipated to improve by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the national subsidy policy for trade-in programs, which was officially issued at the end of August 2024. Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted slightly downward by 0.1% for each year, while adjusted net profit forecasts have been reduced by 9% for 2024 and 2025, and by 8% for 2026 [6][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Q3 2024 revenue is expected to be 259.6 billion yuan, with JD Retail revenue growth at 5%. The growth in the electronics category is expected to turn positive, and the daily necessities category is projected to grow in the high single digits. The POP model is expected to grow faster than the market average [3][4] - The company is maintaining disciplined spending, which has enhanced its bargaining power and led to a recovery in gross margins. This is expected to drive adjusted net profit growth of 6% year-on-year [4][6] Market Dynamics - The GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is expected to see high single-digit growth in Q3, primarily driven by the trade-in program for electronics. The number of active merchants is expected to maintain double-digit growth, and the number of active purchasing users is projected to grow in double digits year-on-year [4][6] Financial Adjustments - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1,134.2 billion yuan, 1,201.6 billion yuan, and 1,280.9 billion yuan respectively. The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 41.9 billion yuan, 46.9 billion yuan, and 52 billion yuan respectively [6][4]
京东集团-SW：2024Q3前瞻：以旧换新带动公司GMV增速加快