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台积电:业绩、指引超预期,上调全年指引
TSMTSMC(TSM) 国金证券·2024-10-18 00:51

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 23.50billion,ayearonyearincreaseof36.023.50 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.9%, exceeding previous guidance [1]. - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 57.8%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year and 4.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, also surpassing prior guidance [1]. - Net profit for Q3 2024 reached 10.058 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 31.4% [1]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance from slightly over 25% to nearly 30% [1]. Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company expects revenue between 26.1billionand26.1 billion and 26.9 billion, with a midpoint year-on-year growth of 35.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.7% [1]. - The projected gross margin for Q4 2024 is between 57.0% and 59.0% [1]. - The company anticipates full-year capital expenditures to exceed 30billion[1].OperationalAnalysisTheimprovementingrossmarginisattributedtoincreasedutilizationratesandcostoptimization[2].TherevenuedistributionforadvancedprocessnodesinQ32024was2030 billion [1]. Operational Analysis - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to increased utilization rates and cost optimization [2]. - The revenue distribution for advanced process nodes in Q3 2024 was 20% for 3nm, 32% for 5nm, and 17% for 7nm, with 69% of revenue coming from 7nm and more advanced nodes [2]. - Major downstream applications include High-Performance Computing (HPC) and smartphones, with Q3 2024 revenue contributions of 51% from HPC and 34% from smartphones [2]. - The company expects low single-digit growth in PCs and smartphones, but anticipates that AI-related demand will drive higher wafer consumption growth [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 89.21 billion, 115.35billion,and115.35 billion, and 134.77 billion, respectively, with net profits of 36.11billion,36.11 billion, 48.87 billion, and $58.27 billion [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from an improved competitive landscape in the advanced process foundry industry and increased demand for advanced processes [3].