QINGDAO SENTURY TIRE CO.(002984) 国泰君安·2024-10-20 17:06Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with the Morocco project starting to contribute incrementally from the end of September [6][7]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.29, 2.59, and 2.89 respectively, up from previous estimates of 2.11, 2.44, and 2.81 [7]. - The target price remains at 34.24, based on a PE ratio of 14.95 for 2024 [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 6.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, and a net profit of 1.726 billion, up 73.72% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2024, total revenue was 2.23 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.82% [7]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 648 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 67.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.09% [7]. Production and Market Demand - The company reported a total tire production of 2.424 million units for the first three quarters of 2024, with year-on-year increases of 14.05% for total tires, 13.73% for semi-steel tires, and 26.10% for all-steel tires [7]. - The company continues to see strong demand in the European and American tire markets, with ongoing expansion into high-growth domestic markets [7]. Cost and Pricing Trends - The report notes limited impact from cost fluctuations, despite significant increases in shipping prices due to geopolitical factors [7]. - As of October 20, 2024, the average price of natural rubber was 17,400 yuan per ton, with a monthly increase of 2.35% and a yearly increase of 28.89% [7]. Strategic Developments - The Morocco project is accelerating, with the factory officially starting production on September 30, 2024, which is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge [7]. - The company has positioned itself as a high-end supplier for major automotive brands, including Volkswagen and Audi [7].