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摩根大通：台积电继续保持人工智能增长和 GM 上升势头，并有可能进一步将业务外包给英特尔；将 PT 提高至 1500 新台币
CKHUYCKH HOLDINGS(CKHUY) 英特尔·2024-10-21 15:21

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating on TSMC with a price target raised to NT1500forDecember2025,reflectingimprovedprofitabilityandthelikelihoodoffurtheroutsourcingfromIntel[4][10].CoreInsights−TSMCisexpectedtoexperiencestrongrevenuegrowthdrivenbyAImomentum,particularlyfromitsN3andN2processnodes,withprojectedrevenuegrowthratesof241500 for December 2025, reflecting improved profitability and the likelihood of further outsourcing from Intel [4][10]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to experience strong revenue growth driven by AI momentum, particularly from its N3 and N2 process nodes, with projected revenue growth rates of 24% and 18% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [9][24]. - The potential for increased outsourcing from Intel due to delays in Intel's 18A ramp and TSMC's technology leadership is highlighted as a significant opportunity, with estimates suggesting that Intel revenues could peak at 5.5-6 billion in 2025/26 [2][12]. - Gross margins (GMs) are anticipated to improve, potentially reaching 59-60% by 2026, despite challenges from overseas fabs and other headwinds [1][21]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for TSMC have been adjusted, with 2025 revenue projected at NT3,575billionand2026atNT3,575 billion and 2026 at NT4,217 billion [5][47]. - Adjusted EPS estimates for 2025 have been revised to NT57.10,reflectinga757.10, reflecting a 7% increase from previous estimates [5][47]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the strong demand for TSMC's N3 process node, with utilization expected to remain above 100% through 2025, driven by major customers including Apple and AMD [27][29]. - Datacenter AI revenues are projected to grow significantly, with a 93% increase expected in 2025, contributing to TSMC's overall revenue growth [24][25]. Competitive Positioning - TSMC's near-monopoly position in AI accelerators and edge AI, along with its strong process roadmap and packaging technology, positions it favorably in the semiconductor industry [9][10]. - The report notes that TSMC's pricing power is expected to enhance gross margins, further solidifying its competitive edge [9][10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a cyclical recovery in the semiconductor industry starting in mid-2025, which is expected to drive better utilizations for older nodes and contribute to TSMC's growth [11][42]. - The potential for further outsourcing from Intel could serve as a catalyst for TSMC's stock re-rating, with estimates suggesting an additional 10-12 billion in revenue from Intel outsourcing [16][34].