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海量数据:自主数据库高增,openGauss产业领军
603138VASTDATA(603138) 国泰君安·2024-10-22 00:10

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" and sets a target price of 25.98 CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of 78.73 [6][9]. Core Views - The company's self-developed database products are experiencing significant revenue growth, and the transition to a product-oriented strategy is progressing smoothly. The openGauss ecosystem is rapidly developing, and the company possesses full-stack capabilities in openGauss, which may lead to better-than-expected performance [8][20]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be -0.06 CNY, 0.33 CNY, and 0.83 CNY, respectively, with a reference to comparable companies' average valuation levels [9][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s self-developed database software sales revenue from 2021 to 2023 was 6.82 million CNY, 18.86 million CNY, and 36.45 million CNY, indicating explosive growth. The gross margin for self-developed database products was approximately 99% [14][25]. - Revenue for the self-developed database and services is expected to grow at rates of 99.75%, 84.58%, and 73.42% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 77.80%, 81.02%, and 82.73% respectively [15][16]. 2. Continuous High Growth of Self-Developed Database Revenue - The company has transitioned from low-margin overseas database product sales to a self-developed product strategy since 2014, launching the openGauss-based Vastbase G100 in 2020. This product has gained traction in various sectors, including government and finance [20][21]. - The company’s self-developed database product sales have shown explosive growth, with sales revenue increasing significantly from 2021 to 2023 [25][28]. 3. Rapid Development of the openGauss Ecosystem - The openGauss database has rapidly increased its market share in China, from 1% in 2021 to 21.9% in 2023, benefiting from the emphasis on security and reliability in database selection [29][36]. - The company is a key contributor to the openGauss community, ranking second in code contributions, which enhances its competitive position in the market [38][39]. 4. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a rebound in the growth of the relational database software market in China, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 20.9% from 2023 to 2028 [31][34]. - The increasing focus on security and reliability in database procurement is expected to favor domestic database vendors, providing significant market opportunities [36][37].