Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 2.37, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of HKD 2.04 [11]. Core Insights - The impact of the Sichuan hydropower plant's exit from operation is expected to be minor, with compensation payments anticipated to be received in 2025 [1]. - The company forecasts a reduction in hydropower generation by approximately 110 million kWh in 2024, leading to a revenue decrease of about RMB 30 million [1]. - A one-time impairment is expected in 2024, but the core earnings impact for 2025-2026 is projected to be minimal [1]. - The dividend policy for 2024 is expected to remain unchanged, with a forecasted dividend of RMB 0.14 per share [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 20,867 million for 2024, RMB 22,696 million for 2025, and RMB 24,982 million for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 2.1%, 8.8%, and 10.1% respectively [2]. - Net profit estimates are RMB 2,932 million for 2024, RMB 3,523 million for 2025, and RMB 4,240 million for 2026, with a projected decline of 7.6% in 2024 followed by a recovery in subsequent years [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 0.34 for 2024, RMB 0.41 for 2025, and RMB 0.50 for 2026 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.4 for 2024, decreasing to 4.5 for 2025 and 3.7 for 2026 [2]. Operational Insights - The company’s total electricity sales for 2024 are projected to be 40,927 million kWh, with contributions from various energy sources: wind (13,836 million kWh), natural gas (19,424 million kWh), solar (6,066 million kWh), and hydropower (1,600 million kWh) [5]. - The operational profit from the wind and solar segments is expected to be significant, while the hydropower segment's contribution to operating profit is anticipated to be only 1% in 2025-2026 [1].
京能清洁能源：四川水电厂解网影响轻微，预期补偿款明年到位