微电生理：内外因素影响短期业绩，期待4Q回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MicroPort EP (688351 CH) with a target price of RMB 27.46 [5][7] Core Views - The company's 1-3Q24 revenue reached RMB 291 million (yoy +23.2%), with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 41.73 million (yoy +262.2%) [1] - 3Q24 revenue was RMB 93 million (yoy -1.5%), impacted by external factors in the domestic medical industry and adjustments in distributor cooperation post-electrophysiology centralized procurement [1] - The report expects a recovery in 4Q24, driven by reduced domestic channel adjustment impacts and accelerated overseas high-end product sales [1] - Overseas revenue is expected to grow rapidly, supported by increased product recognition and new high-end product approvals (e.g., TrueForce pressure catheter) [2] - Domestic revenue is projected to remain stable, with high-end products contributing to growth [2] Product Performance - Catheter products showed strong growth in 1-3Q24, with over 3,000 pressure ablation catheters used domestically and 1,000 overseas [3] - Equipment products are expected to perform well due to strong product performance and commercialization efforts [3] - Other products, such as needle sheaths, are anticipated to grow alongside the increase in 3D electrophysiology surgeries [3] Financial Metrics - 1-3Q24 gross margin was 58.8% (yoy -6.8pct), attributed to price adjustments post-centralized procurement and limited scale effects for new high-end products [4] - Sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 27.7%/10.3%/19.4%, respectively, showing a yoy decline due to cost control measures [4] - Operating cash flow turned positive at RMB 61.97 million, indicating improved cash flow levels [4] Earnings and Valuation Adjustments - The report revised 24-26E EPS forecasts to RMB 0.07/0.15/0.24, down from previous estimates of RMB 0.11/0.21/0.34 [5] - DCF valuation was used with a WACC of 7.5% and a perpetual growth rate of 1.7%, resulting in a target price of RMB 27.46 [5] - 24E revenue is projected at RMB 428.11 million, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 33.43 million [6] Overseas and Domestic Revenue Breakdown - Overseas revenue is expected to grow rapidly, driven by product recognition and new high-end product launches [2] - Domestic revenue is projected to remain stable, supported by high-end product expansion [2] Product-Specific Insights - Catheter products, especially pressure ablation catheters, are driving growth, with significant usage both domestically and overseas [3] - Equipment products are expected to perform well due to strong commercialization efforts [3] - Other products, such as needle sheaths, are anticipated to grow alongside the increase in 3D electrophysiology surgeries [3]