Guobang Pharma (605507) 国泰君安·2024-10-22 10:31Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [2][3] - Target price raised to 25.05 yuan (previously 20.80 yuan) [2][3] Core Views - Steady growth in performance with improved profitability [2] - Revenue for 2024 Q1-Q3 reached 4.418 billion yuan (+9.00% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 579 million yuan (+18.36% YoY) [2] - Q3 revenue was 1.526 billion yuan (+22.68% YoY), and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.743 billion yuan (+32.43% YoY) [2] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 revised to 1.40/1.67/2.01 yuan (previously 0.98/1.15/1.42 yuan) [2] Profitability Improvement - Gross margin for 2024 Q1-Q3 was 26.17%, up 1.52 pct YoY, with Q3 gross margin at 25.36%, up 0.67 pct YoY [2] - Expense ratios improved: sales expense ratio at 1.14% (-0.19 pct YoY), management expense ratio at 5.16% (-0.5 pct YoY), and R&D expense ratio at 3.63% (-0.39 pct YoY) [2] - Net profit margin for 2024 Q1-Q3 increased to 13.10%, up 1.07 pct YoY [2] Key Projects and Global Expansion - 33 pharmaceutical APIs approved domestically, with over 70 API and intermediate products in production (17 products with revenue over 50 million yuan, 12 products over 100 million yuan) [2] - Key projects include a 70,000-ton key pharmaceutical intermediate project and a 1,420-ton API and intermediate technical transformation project [2] - Products sold to 115 countries across 6 continents, with over 3,000 customers including global pharmaceutical giants like Bayer, Eli Lilly, and Novartis [2] - Established API sales channels in India, the Netherlands, Korea, Pakistan, and Spain, with semi-finished products sold in Southeast Asia and Africa [2] Financial Highlights - Total market capitalization of 11.456 billion yuan [4] - Shareholder equity of 7.84 billion yuan, with net assets per share at 14.03 yuan [5] - Revenue forecast for 2024E at 5.897 billion yuan (+10.2% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 782 million yuan (+27.6% YoY) [9] - ROE expected to rise from 9.7% in 2024E to 11.6% in 2026E [9] Valuation and Peer Comparison - 2025E PE ratio of 15X, with a target price of 25.05 yuan [2] - Comparable companies include Puluo Pharmaceutical and Chuanneng Biology, with average PE ratios of 17.85X (2024E), 15.08X (2025E), and 12.99X (2026E) [11]