SJA(600609) 长城证券·2024-10-22 11:41Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Jinbei Automotive with a "Buy" rating, citing potential growth driven by its restructuring and BMW's increased investment in China [2][24] Core Views - Jinbei Automotive is a core supplier of interior seats for BMW, benefiting from BMW's new investment cycle in China, including a planned RMB 20 billion investment in its Shenyang production base for the "New Generation" models [2][14] - The company has successfully restructured under the control of Shenyang SASAC, positioning itself as a key resource integration platform in Shenyang's automotive industry [1][11] - Jinbei Automotive's acquisition of Shifa Company in July 2024 aims to expand its automotive parts business and strengthen its market competitiveness [2][9] - The company has recovered RMB 70 million in debt from Huachen Group and Huachen Renault Jinbei, boosting its cash flow and profitability [2][18][20] - Jinbei Automotive has introduced a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to annual cash dividends of at least 30% of net profit [2][22] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to decline by 15.5% in 2024 to RMB 4.34 billion but recover to RMB 5.05 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 5.0% from 2024 to 2026 [1][24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow significantly by 149.4% in 2024 to RMB 303 million, reaching RMB 340 million by 2026 [1][24] - ROE is forecasted to remain strong at 25.6% in 2024, gradually declining to 18.5% by 2026 [1][24] - The company's P/E ratio is estimated at 18.6x for 2024, decreasing to 16.6x by 2026, indicating attractive valuation levels [1][24] Business Strategy - Jinbei Automotive focuses on its core automotive parts business, particularly interior and seat components, which accounted for 96.18% of its revenue in 2023 [7][9] - The company is expanding its customer base beyond BMW, aiming to secure contracts with other domestic automakers to reduce reliance on a single client [15][16] - The acquisition of Shifa Company, which supplies plastic interior parts to BMW's Tier 1 suppliers, is expected to enhance Jinbei's product line and market position [9][10] Industry and Market Position - BMW's Shenyang production base accounted for 32.3% of its global output in 2023, making it the largest production base for BMW globally [14][15] - Jinbei Automotive is the only manufacturing platform enterprise in the A-share automotive parts sector under Shenyang SASAC, highlighting its strategic importance [1][11] - The company's revenue from BMW accounted for 89.24% of its total revenue in 2023, underscoring its deep integration with BMW's supply chain [16]