TFC(300394) 国金证券·2024-10-23 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.395 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 98.55%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 976 million RMB, up 122.39% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 839 million RMB, with a net profit of 322 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54.77% and 58.69% respectively [2]. - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily driven by the increasing demand for high-speed optical devices due to advancements in AI technology and the global data center construction [2][3]. - The industry is currently experiencing a high demand phase, with capital expenditures from downstream clients expected to rise, particularly in AI-related hardware investments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.395 billion RMB and a net profit of 976 million RMB, marking significant year-on-year increases of 98.55% and 122.39% respectively [2]. - The third quarter results showed a revenue of 839 million RMB and a net profit of 322 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.77% and 58.69% [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s profitability is under short-term pressure, with a gross margin of 59.04% and a net margin of 38.41% in the third quarter, slightly down from previous periods [2]. - The demand for high-speed optical devices is expected to remain strong, supported by the alleviation of production capacity constraints and increased order volumes for 800G and 1.6T products [3]. Future Outlook - The demand landscape for 2025 is becoming clearer, with expectations of sustained industry growth driven by increased capital expenditures from cloud service providers [2][3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 1.427 billion RMB, 2.234 billion RMB, and 2.795 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58 RMB, 4.03 RMB, and 6.90 RMB [3][4].