YTG(000975) 天风证券·2024-10-24 06:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [5][12]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 12.071 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.14%, and a net profit of 1.727 billion yuan, up 54.46% year-on-year [1][4]. - The rising gold prices and stable production and sales of mineral products have contributed to the company's robust profitability [2][3]. - The company completed the acquisition of Osino in Namibia, which is expected to add significant gold production capacity starting in 2026, further enhancing growth prospects [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.65%, and a net profit of 652 million yuan, up 69.99% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for gold production was approximately 73.1% for the first three quarters, reflecting an improvement of 1.21 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 2.604 billion yuan, 3.416 billion yuan, and 3.963 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.23, and 1.43 yuan per share [4][7]. Production and Cost Analysis - The company produced 6.28 tons of gold and 122.8 tons of silver in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 production showing slight declines in gold but stable silver production [2]. - The unit cost of gold production decreased to approximately 142.8 yuan per gram, while the gross margin for silver production was around 47.7%, reflecting a decline of 1.45 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2]. Growth Strategy - The company aims to increase its gold production targets to 8 tons in 2024, 12 tons in 2025, and 15 tons in 2026, with a long-term goal of reaching 28 tons by 2030 [3].