MEITUAN(03690) 国海证券·2024-10-24 07:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) [1] Core Views - Meituan's Q3 2024 revenue is expected to reach 921 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 20 5% and a QoQ increase of 12% [1] - Core local commerce revenue is projected at 687 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 19% and QoQ growth of 13% [1] - The food delivery business is expected to generate 459 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 15% and QoQ increase of 13%, and an operating profit margin of 17 8% [1] - Flash delivery revenue is forecasted at 67 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 42% and an operating profit margin of 0 3% [1] - The in-store, hotel, and travel business is expected to achieve 154 billion yuan in revenue, with a YoY increase of 25% and QoQ increase of 11%, and an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - New business revenue is projected at 235 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 25% and QoQ growth of 9%, and an operating profit margin of -8% [1] Core Local Commerce - Food Delivery Business - The food delivery business is expected to see a 14 6% YoY revenue increase to 459 billion yuan, with GTV growing 11% YoY and operating profit margin improving by 2 9 percentage points to 17 8% [1] - Order volume is expected to grow 12% YoY to 6 12 billion orders, driven by new supply models and marketing campaigns [1] - The "Autumn's First Milk Tea" campaign achieved a daily peak of 90 million orders in August 2024 [1] - Long-term growth is supported by adapting to consumer behavior changes and deepening the supply chain [1] Core Local Commerce - Flash Delivery Business - Flash delivery revenue is expected to grow 42% YoY to 67 billion yuan, with order volume increasing 37% YoY to 960 million orders [1] - The lightning warehouse model is a key driver, with over 30,000 warehouses currently and a projected 100,000 by 2027 [1] - Operating profit margin is expected to decline by 4 8 percentage points due to increased marketing and seasonal delivery costs [1] Core Local Commerce - In-Store, Hotel, and Travel Business - Revenue for this segment is expected to grow 25% YoY to 154 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 35% [1] - The "Shen Membership" integration is driving synergies, with GTV expected to grow 35% YoY [1] - The National Day Golden Week saw a 41 2% YoY increase in in-store consumption and a 69 6% YoY increase in tourist spending [1] - The segment is expected to achieve a 21% CAGR from 2023 to 2026 [1] New Business - New business revenue is expected to grow 25% YoY to 235 billion yuan, driven by Xiaoxiang Supermarket [1] - The segment's loss is expected to increase slightly to 1 8 billion yuan, mainly due to seasonal cold chain investments [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at 3,328 billion yuan, 3,863 billion yuan, and 4,389 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 33 2 billion yuan, 44 1 billion yuan, and 55 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 41 5 billion yuan, 57 3 billion yuan, and 68 3 billion yuan for the same period [5] - The target price is set at 230 yuan (250 HKD) based on SOTP valuation [5] Market Performance - Meituan-W has outperformed the Hang Seng Index with a 46 8% increase over the past month, 65% over three months, and 80 8% over twelve months [1] - The current stock price is 194 90 HKD, with a market capitalization of 1,185,913 94 million HKD [1]